Forecasting and insights
Construction forecasts that show their assumptions
We build forecasts from the data your project managers and accountants already keep: the cost-to-complete forecast, issued invoices and bills, contracts and signed work. Each projection states the rules behind it, month-end snapshots keep reported figures fixed so trends are honest, and jobs that drift are flagged for review. A forecast is only as good as its inputs and assumptions, so we make both visible.
The value it creates
Forecasting
Project forward with stated assumptions
Cash, backlog and margin projections are calculated from written rules, such as which invoices count as expected collections, so anyone can see why a number is what it is.
Early warning
See fade before month-end close
Jobs with no forecast, a negative margin, or cost above the estimate at completion are flagged on every refresh, so a project manager updates the forecast before the WIP is published.
Better decisions
Decide on numbers that hold still
Month-end snapshots keep reported figures as reported, so a board pack from March still matches March and the change since then is visible on its own.
Visibility
From portfolio to cost code
Start with backlog, margin and cash across all jobs, then drill into one project's budget, committed cost, cost to date and estimate at completion by cost code.
Time saved
Less time rebuilding the forecast workbook
The forecast refreshes from source systems on a schedule, instead of someone re-keying exports into a spreadsheet each month.
Standardization
One definition of every forecast measure
Percent complete, backlog months, fade and risk labels are defined once with the controller and calculated the same way for every job.
What we build
Cash forecast
Expected collections and payments by week from open invoices and bills, with the cumulative cash position and the items behind each figure.
Backlog and burn
Signed work not yet earned, by project and by month, with backlog months showing how long current work lasts at the recent earning pace.
Fade and gain tracking
Month-on-month change in gross profit percent at completion for each job, calculated from stored month-end snapshots.
Early-warning flags
Rule-based risk labels such as no forecast, at risk and watch, plus exceptions for jobs over their estimate at completion, so attention goes where it is needed.
Month-end snapshots
One stored row per project per month, so trends, fade and comparisons use figures as they were reported rather than as they look today.
Scenario assumptions
Assumptions such as collection timing or burn rate kept in a governed table your team can review and adjust, with the forecast showing which assumption set it used.
Forward work and capacity
Backlog shown next to weighted CRM pipeline, never added together, alongside labor hours and utilization, so you can see whether upcoming work fits your crews.
How it works
1.History + commitments
Actuals to date plus what's already contracted.
2.Assumptions
Receipt and payment timing, burn rate — written down, editable.
3.Scenarios
Base, slow-pay and fast-burn cases side by side.
4.Forecast with range
A likely figure with a low–high band, not a single number.
5.Review & snapshot
Signed off, then frozen so you can compare to actuals later.
- 1
Agree the definitions
We write down with your controller how each forecast measure is calculated, including edge cases like a job with no estimate at completion or cost above it.
- 2
Connect the inputs
We pull the project forecast, contracts, invoices, bills and pipeline from source systems into a lakehouse and join them on a project crosswalk.
- 3
Validate before every refresh
Data-quality checks run first; missing forecasts stay blank rather than becoming zero, and unmatched projects appear on an exceptions page.
- 4
Snapshot month-end
Each close stores the reported figures, so fade, gain and trend lines compare like with like.
- 5
Publish forecasts and flags
Power BI pages show the cash forecast, backlog and burn, fade and gain, and risk labels, each with the assumptions and sources it used.
Systems we work with
- Procore
- QuickBooks Online
- Sage 100 Contractor
- HubSpot
- Outbuild
- Primavera P6
- Microsoft Fabric
- Power BI
How we measure the value
We agree a baseline before we build and measure the same things after go-live. Use the monthly report cost calculator to put your own numbers on it.
| What we measure | How baseline and after are captured |
|---|---|
| Forecast accuracy over time | We store each month's projection alongside the month-end snapshot, then compare forecast cash and margin against what actually happened in later months. |
| Jobs with a missing or stale forecast | The refresh counts jobs with no estimate at completion or an outdated forecast, starting from the first run, and tracks the count each month. |
| Lead time on margin fade | We record when fade on recent jobs was first raised under the current process, then compare with when the fade flag first appears in the report after go-live. |
| Hours to produce the forecast | We log the time your team spends building the cash and WIP forecast now, then track the same work once it refreshes from the pipeline. |
Use cases
- Built and shown
Construction cash flow forecast from AR and AP
A rolling weekly cash forecast built from the invoices and bills already in your accounting system, with assumptions stated on the page.
- Built and shown
Backlog and burn forecast for construction
Backlog value and backlog months by project and month, with weighted pipeline shown beside it but never counted as backlog.
- Built and shown
Automated WIP schedule from Procore and accounting
A WIP schedule that builds itself from Procore and your accounting system every night, with month-end figures frozen as reported.
- Built and shown
Weighted project health scorecard for construction
A 0 to 1 project health index from weighted categories, with the arithmetic and data coverage shown so nobody has to take the score on faith.
- Built and shown
Executive portfolio dashboard for contractors
A portfolio page and a one-page executive KPI view, with drill-through from any project to its detail.
- Built and shown
Job cost reconciliation between Procore and accounting
A nightly cross-check of Procore cost against accounting job cost, with every difference listed and traced to the system to fix.
- Built and shown
Schedule data in your reporting: P6 and Outbuild next to cost
Milestones and activities from P6 XER files or Outbuild land in the same model as cost and project records, mapped to the right project.
Proof
- BuildConnected financial reporting with WIP, backlog and cash forecast (Production implementation)
- WalkthroughWalkthrough: Procore, QuickBooks Online and HubSpot in Fabric
- ArticleThe Financial Operating System report, page by page
- ArticleGuide: construction WIP reporting in Power BI
- BuildConstruction reporting across Procore, Sage 100, Outbuild and SharePoint (Production implementation)
Ways to start
Frequently asked questions
Is this predictive analytics or AI forecasting?
Mostly it is not, and we say so. The forecasts are calculated from your own data and written rules, such as the project manager's estimate at completion and the due dates on open invoices and bills. That makes them explainable and checkable. Where a statistical or AI model would genuinely help, we discuss it during discovery and test it against your history before relying on it.
How does the cash forecast work?
In our production build the cash forecast uses committed cash only: expected collections from issued invoices and expected payments from bills in accounting, shown by week with the cumulative position. Pipeline deals and unbilled work are not counted as cash. Other assumptions, such as billing timing on unbilled work, can be added as stated, adjustable inputs.
Why do month-end snapshots matter?
If a report only holds the current forecast, past months change every time an estimate moves, and your earlier board pack no longer matches. Storing one row per project per month keeps reported figures as reported. Fade and gain are calculated from those snapshots, so the trend is honest.
What counts as an early warning?
Rules you agree with us, for example a job with no forecast entered, gross profit at completion below zero or below a watch threshold, or cost to date above the estimate at completion. Each flag says why it fired. The thresholds are yours to set and change.
Can we include CRM pipeline in the forecast?
Yes, but it is kept separate. Signed work belongs in backlog; a deal at a given probability does not. We show backlog and weighted pipeline side by side as total forward work, never added together.
How is the project priced, and how do we start?
Scope and price are fixed, agreed after discovery. A sensible start is your project management and accounting systems, the WIP schedule, an exceptions page and month-end snapshots; cash forecast, backlog and capacity follow once the core numbers are trusted. The WIP and Cash Forecast offer is built around this.
Next step
Which report or workflow would you like to improve?
Tell us what your team does today, which systems are involved, and what you want to change. We'll discuss whether there is a practical fit.
Prefer email? charley@buildflows.ai